The anticipated Social Security cost-of-living adjustment — commonly known as COLA — for the year 2026 is currently projected to be 2.5%. This figure is based on recent forecasts from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) and independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson. The prediction reflects ongoing economic trends and is crucial for budgeting among retirees.
This adjustment is particularly significant as it comes during a time when inflation rates, although decreasing from the peaks seen in 2022, continue to be persistent enough to adversely affect the purchasing power of older adults. This is especially true with new tariffs beginning to impact consumer prices across various sectors.
The revised COLA forecast is informed by the latest statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which reported that the consumer price index (CPI) for all urban consumers, or CPI-U, saw an increase of 0.1% in May. Over the past year, prices have surged by 2.4%, primarily driven by rising costs in the housing and food sectors, which are essential for everyday living.
In addition, the CPI for urban wage earners and clerical workers, referred to as CPI-W — the index utilized for calculating COLA — has shown an increase of 2.2% compared to the same period last year, further indicating economic shifts that could affect Social Security beneficiaries.
Mary Johnson, a seasoned policy analyst with expertise in Social Security and Medicare, highlighted that the 2.5% estimate for the upcoming year’s COLA is preliminary and subject to change as more data becomes available. She noted that this estimate could increase as additional data will be collected over the next four months leading up to the official COLA announcement in October.
Johnson remarked, “This estimate may rise with the four more months of data still to come in before the 2026 COLA will be announced in October.” This statement underscores the fluid nature of economic forecasts and their implications for retirees relying on fixed incomes.
She further explained that tariffs introduced during the Trump administration are starting to create upward pressure on prices, complicating the economic landscape. The long-term impacts of these tariffs on inflation remain uncertain, making it critical for retirees to stay informed.
In her analysis, Johnson indicated, “There are signs that the pullback in higher prices appears to be reversing,” pointing to persistent high costs in areas that disproportionately affect retirees, such as housing, food — especially meat prices — and automotive repairs, all essential expenses for older adults.
Challenges in Inflation Data Collection May Impact 2026 COLA Estimates
The latest forecast from TSCL, indicating a 2.5% COLA projection, marks the fourth successive monthly increase in their estimates. However, TSCL has raised concerns that flaws in the current methods of collecting inflation data may undermine the accuracy of future COLA estimates, creating uncertainty for millions of Social Security recipients.
A recent release by TSCL highlighted that the BLS is experiencing staffing shortages due to a federal hiring freeze. This situation has necessitated a reduction in data collection efforts, prompting Shannon Benton, TSCL’s executive director, to express concerns about the potential ramifications for Social Security recipients who rely on accurate inflation tracking.
“While streamlining the federal government is a good thing, that shouldn’t involve cutting back on our ability to measure how our economy is changing,” Benton stated. “Inaccurate or unreliable data in the CPI dramatically increases the likelihood that seniors receive a COLA that’s lower than actual inflation, which can cost seniors thousands of dollars over the course of their retirement.” This underscores the importance of reliable data for the financial well-being of older adults.
In TSCL’s 2025 Senior Survey, which is set to be released soon, it was revealed that 80% of seniors believed that inflation in 2024 exceeded 3%, a significant discrepancy from the actual COLA of 2.5% for that year. The report indicated that the CPI from December 2023 to December 2024 reflected an increase of 2.9%, further illustrating this disconnect.
This perceived disparity between reported and experienced inflation is contributing to a growing sense of distrust among retirees, many of whom already feel financially strained due to rising costs and stagnant benefit growth.
“Seniors should be concerned as inflation continues to tick upward,” Benton advised. “TSCL’s research shows that there’s a serious disconnect between the inflation the government reports and the inflation that seniors experience every day. If the government tells us that prices are rising faster, it’s likely that seniors are already feeling the crunch.” This statement highlights the need for vigilance among retirees navigating economic challenges.
Essential Updates on Social Security and Financial Planning:
Why Some Social Security Recipients Will Not Receive Payments in June
White House Initiatives Aimed at Eliminating Social Security Payments by Paper Check
9 States That Continue to Tax Social Security Benefits
