In 2025, stocks related to quantum computing experienced remarkable growth, yet many of these investments still lack solid fundamentals that investors typically look for.
Quantum computers leverage a principle known as superposition, enabling them to explore numerous potential solutions to a specific problem simultaneously. This characteristic theoretically allows quantum systems to accelerate complex workloads, paving the way for groundbreaking advancements in fields such as science and cryptography. This potential has attracted significant investor interest in quantum stocks like Rigetti Computing (RGTI 2.39%) throughout 2025.
Nevertheless, the majority of quantum computers currently accessible still exhibit alarmingly high error rates, rendering them ineffective for real-world applications. Consequently, companies like Rigetti find themselves struggling to achieve large-scale commercialization of their quantum platforms.
Over the past year, the value of Rigetti’s stock has more than doubled, with its market capitalization reaching approximately $8.5 billion as of this writing. However, due to its minimal revenue generation, the company may encounter challenges in sustaining this valuation throughout 2026. This leads me to predict a significant decline in its stock value as we transition into the new year. Continue reading to find out more.
Image source: Getty Images.
Discover Rigetti’s Pioneering Role in Quantum Computing
Rigetti Computing, established in 2013, has made significant strides over its relatively short history, creating a comprehensive in-house supply chain that distinguishes it from other players in the quantum computing industry. The company operates its own fabrication facility for manufacturing quantum chips, developed a unique programming language named Quil, and has launched a cloud computing platform that enables businesses to rent quantum computing capacity on-demand.
This vertical integration allows Rigetti to introduce updates to the market more swiftly than competitors. Currently, the company boasts the largest multichip quantum computer in its class, known as Cepheus-1-36Q, which has achieved an impressive fidelity rating of 99.5%. Fidelity is a critical metric that quantifies the accuracy of quantum operations; a higher fidelity indicates fewer errors, thus enhancing the computer’s practical utility in addressing real-world challenges.
Unlike conventional computers that rely on bits, which can only represent a state of 0 or 1, quantum computers utilize qubits. These qubits can exist in a state of superposition, allowing them to represent both 0 and 1 simultaneously. This capacity enables quantum systems to perform far more computations in a significantly shorter timeframe, potentially revolutionizing data-intensive disciplines such as science in the years to come.
The Cepheus-1-36Q system incorporates four chips, each containing 9 qubits for a total of 36 qubits. Rigetti, however, is not resting on its laurels; the company plans to unveil a new system boasting over 1,000 qubits by 2027, which could achieve a remarkable fidelity of 99.8%. In essence, Rigetti is rapidly advancing towards the development of commercial-grade quantum computers that could be instrumental for businesses across various sectors.
Assessing Rigetti’s Financial Health: Revenue and Losses
In the first three quarters of 2025 (from January 1 to September 30), Rigetti reported a mere $5.2 million in revenue. Given its market capitalization of $8.5 billion, this figure is exceptionally low. To complicate matters, revenue has declined by 39% compared to the same period in 2024.
On a more positive note, in September, Rigetti secured purchase orders for two quantum computing systems, which are expected to generate approximately $5.7 million in revenue during the first half of 2026. This development provides the company with an opportunity to achieve revenue growth for the full year.
Nonetheless, Rigetti faces a significant hurdle regarding its bottom line. The company continues to increase its operating expenses despite declining revenues, resulting in a net loss of $198 million based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) for the first three quarters of 2025.
Even after excluding one-time and non-cash expenses, Rigetti still reported a loss of $39 million during this period. As of November 6, the company holds around $600 million in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments on its balance sheet, providing sufficient liquidity to support its ongoing losses for the foreseeable future.
However, if Rigetti fails to commercialize its quantum systems at scale within the next few years, the company may be compelled to seek additional funding, leading to potential dilution for current shareholders.
Today’s Change
(-2.39%) $-0.60
Current Price
$24.51
Essential Data Points for Rigetti
Market Cap
$8.1B
Day’s Range
$24.04 – $25.22
52wk Range
$5.95 – $58.15
Volume
18M
Avg Vol
74M
Gross Margin
-6849.48%
Understanding Rigetti’s Unsustainable Stock Valuation
The primary reason for my belief that Rigetti’s stock will face a dramatic decline in 2026 is its valuation. At present, the company is trading at an astonishing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1,010, a figure that is simply not viable in the long term.
Nvidia, recognized as one of the most reputable companies in computing hardware, maintains a P/S ratio of only 24. In comparison, Rigetti’s valuation makes Palantir Technologies‘ P/S ratio of 127 seem relatively reasonable, despite its own absurdity.
RGTI PS Ratio data by YCharts
While Rigetti’s technology is undoubtedly captivating, it is crucial for investors to manage risk effectively. Paying such a high premium for a company with negligible revenue and substantial losses often leads to negative outcomes. Indeed, Rigetti’s stock has already decreased by 53% since its peak in October.
Given that the stock would need to plummet by an additional 87% just to align with Palantir’s P/S ratio, I foresee further declines on the horizon for 2026.
