The satellite internet company is poised to make a significant impact on this rapidly evolving market.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS 4.49%) has experienced remarkable growth in recent years, climbing from a low of approximately $2 per share in April 2024 to an impressive $45 as of August 21, 2025. However, the pressing question remains: Is this satellite internet disruptor still undervalued?
Many experts believe the answer is yes. Despite not generating revenue at present, AST SpaceMobile is on the verge of introducing a revolutionary business model that could significantly challenge established satellite internet providers like Starlink and potentially stifle emerging services such as Amazon‘s Project Kuiper before they can even launch. The company’s innovative direct-to-device connectivity technology has the potential to drive unprecedented growth, paving the way for billions in annual revenue.
Does this indicate that investing in AST SpaceMobile stock presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity? Let’s delve deeper to uncover the facts.
Understanding Upfront Costs and Connectivity Innovations
AST SpaceMobile intends to revolutionize the satellite internet landscape by constructing large satellites capable of directly connecting smartphones to the internet, eliminating the necessity for wired connections, cellular towers, or external satellite terminals (unlike Starlink). Through extensive research and development, the company has successfully created these sizable satellites and is currently collaborating with rocket launch providers to position them in orbit.
The management team is committed to accelerating launch timelines to initiate this groundbreaking internet service swiftly. Currently, the company has six satellites in orbit but aims to expand this fleet to between 45 and 60 by 2026. Manufacturing is progressing well; the next critical step is launching these satellites into space and commencing operations. Testing has confirmed that the service can deliver internet speeds sufficient for streaming videos or conducting video calls from virtually anywhere globally, irrespective of proximity to terrestrial cellular towers.
While constructing a new constellation of satellites is an exhilarating endeavor, it comes with substantial costs. Over the past year, AST SpaceMobile has invested $543 million in capital expenditures, all while generating nearly no revenue. As the company continues to build its satellite constellation, significant investments in manufacturing will be required. The management is acutely aware of these initial capital demands, which is why it has successfully raised funds through various channels, resulting in a robust balance sheet with $1.5 billion in liquidity to support ongoing growth.
Image source: Getty Images.
Forecasting Future Earnings and Growth Potential
Once the satellite constellation becomes operational, AST SpaceMobile is strategically positioned to quickly begin generating revenue. How will this be achieved? By forging partnerships with major telecommunications providers like AT&T and Verizon, as well as similar companies in other countries. By leveraging its extensive network of partners, AST SpaceMobile has the capacity to target approximately 3 billion existing smartphone and internet users with its innovative add-on service, designed specifically for remote internet access.
This is precisely why the company anticipates scaling its revenue to between $50 million and $75 million almost immediately—likely in the latter half of this year—once the service is fully operational in the United States. Plans for 2026 include expanding service coverage throughout the U.S. and into international markets such as the United Kingdom, Canada, and Japan, which could significantly accelerate revenue growth into the hundreds of millions of dollars. Beyond its commercial prospects, AST SpaceMobile has already secured contracts with the United States government, notably within military divisions.
Estimating the potential revenue from these initiatives is challenging, particularly given the current minimal sales figures. However, let’s make an attempt. If we assume that 10 million customers enroll in this add-on service via telecommunications providers over the next five years, at a rate of $10 per month, this could translate to a staggering $1.2 billion in revenue for AST SpaceMobile. When factoring in government contracts and additional revenue streams, the total could rise to $1.5 billion.
While revenue sharing with mobile providers may consume a substantial portion of that $1.5 billion, AST SpaceMobile could still retain between $500 million and $1 billion to cover operational expenses. This scenario suggests that the company could potentially achieve net profitability and positive free cash flow within the next five years, assuming everything unfolds according to plan.
ASTS Capital Expenditures (TTM) data by YCharts.
Should You Consider Investing in AST SpaceMobile Stock Right Now?
While the ideal scenario is for everything to progress smoothly, the reality of launching satellites into space can often present unforeseen challenges. Just recently, India’s space agency, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), announced potential delays in the launch of an upcoming AST SpaceMobile satellite, which was initially scheduled for later this year, now possibly pushed to Q1 2026. Such delays could result in increased cash burn and necessitate additional fundraising efforts.
Even in the event that AST SpaceMobile adheres to its current timeline, the stock’s valuation appears quite high. With a market capitalization of $16 billion and no revenue to show for it, even if net earnings reach $500 million in five years without any further share dilution, the stock would still be trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 32 based on the current market cap. This valuation is still steep compared to the average stock in the market.
In summary, while AST SpaceMobile is an intriguing disruptor in the satellite internet sector, the current stock price seems to have outpaced its actual value, indicating that it may not be a prudent investment choice for potential investors at this time.
