After a two-year hiatus, interest rates on Series I Savings Bonds, commonly referred to as I bonds, are experiencing an increase.
On Friday, the Department of the Treasury announced a new rate for I bonds purchased in the upcoming six months, raising it to 4.03%, a slight improvement from the previous 3.98%. This adjustment stems from the rampant inflation observed between April and September, the very months utilized by the Treasury Department for its calculations in November.
“I am still a strong proponent of I bonds as a viable medium- to long-term investment option,” states David Enna, founder of the financial platform TIPS Watch, which meticulously tracks I bond trends. He notes that even at 4.03%, short-term investors can anticipate a satisfactory return.
I bonds, available for acquisition through TreasuryDirect.gov, are specifically crafted to safeguard savings against rising prices. Their popularity surged in 2022 when the rate exceeded 9% for the first time, a response to the soaring inflation experienced during the pandemic. Although rates have declined since then, financial experts assert that these government-backed savings bonds remain one of the most dependable inflation hedges available.
“I bonds are a distinctive investment vehicle, recognized as one of the safest options globally, as they are underpinned by the U.S. government and offer protection against official U.S. inflation,” Enna remarked on his platform. “This holds true regardless of how high inflation escalates.”
How Do I Bonds Function as an Inflation Hedge?
Every six months, a portion of the overall interest rate for I bonds is recalibrated to account for changes in inflation. This component is known as the variable rate, which is currently set at 3.12% annualized.
The other component is referred to as the fixed rate, which remains constant throughout the lifespan of the I bond, lasting up to 30 years.
On Friday, the Treasury Department established the new fixed rate at 0.9%, a slight decrease from the previous 1.10%. This implies that I bonds purchased between now and the end of April 2026 will feature a fixed rate of 0.9% for a duration of up to 30 years, thereby ensuring a return that exceeds inflation.
While the variable rate is straightforward and tied directly to inflation metrics, the fixed rate remains somewhat opaque. The Treasury Department does not disclose its specific methodology for determining this rate; however, it is known to be influenced by benchmark interest rates, which are currently on the decline.
Nonetheless, Enna believes he has deciphered the mystery, having accurately predicted the rates of I bonds for multiple years. Just last week, following the delayed release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics inflation report, he forecasted the new I bonds rate at precisely 4.03%.
Enna expresses optimism that the fixed rate for I bonds will maintain the 0.9% level moving forward. However, this is contingent on the trajectory of the Federal Reserve‘s efforts to combat inflation.
“The fixed rate for I bonds is likely to decrease as the Fed continues to lower rates,” suggests Ken Tumin, a savings rate analyst with Deposit Quest.
Investors eager to secure the 0.9% fixed rate to ensure their returns surpass inflation must consider purchasing their bonds before this rate changes, according to Tumin.
Are I Bonds a Suitable Investment for You?
Beyond their design for combating inflation, I bonds present various advantages and disadvantages that investors should weigh before making a purchase.
In contrast to other investment vehicles and savings accounts, the earnings generated from I bonds are exempt from state and local taxes, with federal taxes only applicable upon cashing out the bonds.
However, there are certain restrictions associated with these bonds. They must be acquired digitally via TreasuryDirect.gov and are subject to a purchase limit of $10,000 annually. Additionally, they need to be held for a minimum of one year, and cashing out bonds within five years incurs a penalty equivalent to three months of interest. (The option to purchase paper I bonds using tax refund money was eliminated in January.)
These restrictions underpin why many financial professionals view I bonds as a long-term strategy against inflation rather than a short-term solution.
For everyday savers, alternatives such as money-market accounts, high-yield savings accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs) are worth considering.
Currently, top-performing money-market accounts and CDs are offering interest rates as high as 4.25%. Meanwhile, high-yield savings accounts are peaking around 4.35%.
It is crucial to understand that these rates can fluctuate frequently and without notice from financial institutions. Typically, interest rates on savings accounts tend to decrease shortly after a Federal Reserve rate cut, like the one announced recently.
In contrast, the overall rate for I bonds (currently at 4.03%) is guaranteed for six months, while the fixed rate (at 0.9%) is assured for up to 30 years.
“I bonds are an excellent option for savings that you will likely not need for several years,” Tumin comments. “Unlike CDs and high-yield savings accounts, I bonds will ensure your savings outpace inflation.”
This article has been updated to include additional insights from Ken Tumin.
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