The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump have sparked widespread debate and controversy, leading many to label them as utterly perplexing and detrimental.
Many observers question the very sanity behind Trump’s actions, raising concerns about his mental state and decision-making capabilities.
This leads me to pose a question for the betting community: What do you think is the over/under on the longevity of Trump’s newly announced tariffs?
In March, Trump declared tariffs on Canada, only to rescind them within a mere 24 hours. Given that the current tariffs have already exceeded this timeframe, it is clear that 24 hours cannot serve as a viable over/under benchmark.
What about applying the “head of lettuce” standard used to evaluate former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss? Will these tariffs last a modest 10 days?
Or perhaps a couple of months?
Here’s my bold prediction, one that you should take seriously: It is absolutely inconceivable that Trump’s tariffs will remain unchanged by the end of this year.
Some individuals within the Trump administration—Trump included at times—maintain that these tariffs are designed to be nearly permanent, aimed at boosting manufacturing jobs in the United States and restructuring the global economy.
However, these assertions are misleading.
They mislead you for several reasons. Firstly, Trump’s history of imposing and swiftly retracting tariffs without substantial justification raises serious doubts. Who will you trust more—Trump administration officials or the reality that is evident to you?
Secondly, these tariffs were largely implemented to draw attention to Trump himself. He craves the spotlight, and when figures like Prime Minister Keir Starmer reach out to flatter him, Trump may declare victory and reduce tariffs on the United Kingdom. In this way, he will have successfully captured the media’s attention once again, which appears to be a central objective of his administration. Nevertheless, the tariffs will likely be in place only temporarily.
Furthermore, the officials from the Trump administration are not being truthful for a third reason: the global stock markets are experiencing declines as a reaction to these tariffs. Trump predicted that voting for Kamala Harris would lead to a market crash, and it seems he was correct. The stock markets consist of countless independent participants who cannot be coerced into behaving according to Trump’s whims. They understand that initiating a global trade war is a foolish endeavor. Consequently, the markets are inflicting substantial financial losses on Trump and his wealthy associates, losses that they will not tolerate indefinitely.
Most critically, the Trump administration is misrepresenting the truth for a fourth reason: It is unlikely that Congressional Republicans in pivotal districts will support Trump’s tariffs as the next election approaches. Trump campaigned on the issue of inflation; House Republicans understand that they risk losing their seats if inflation and recession dominate the conversation. Some Republican representatives will distance themselves from Trump, compelling him to alter his course on tariffs well before December, as the election season gains momentum.
Mark my words: The Trump tariffs will undergo changes before the end of this year.
What does this mean for the real-world economic landscape?
It is clear to anyone who takes a moment to think about it. (While many may not publicly acknowledge that Trump’s tariffs are farcical, the consensus is widespread.) Since Trump appears to be imposing these tariffs primarily to elicit calls from world leaders who will flatter him, no rational corporation will commit financial resources based on the assumption that these tariffs will remain stable for an extended period. No CEO will invest tens or hundreds of millions of dollars to construct a new manufacturing facility in the United States, fully aware that before the plant becomes operational, Trump may likely change his tariff stance.
Thus, these tariffs will not revive American manufacturing. In fact, they are unlikely to yield any enduring benefits, aside from perhaps serving as a reminder to future presidents that blanket tariffs are fundamentally flawed.
Conversely, the tariffs—and Trump’s other questionable policies, such as his threats to abandon NATO—will inflict lasting damage on the United States. Nations will seek out more dependable trading partners than the United States; once new trade agreements are established, reversing them will be challenging; American exporters will face enduring hardships. NATO allies will find more reliable suppliers of defense equipment than the United States; once those contracts are signed, undoing them will be nearly impossible, significantly affecting American defense contractors. And the repercussions will extend far beyond that.
I am hesitant to take the “under” on my betting prediction. I cannot confidently assert that Trump’s tariffs will remain intact by the year’s end. My outer limit is December 2025.
It is plausible that Trump will become aware of the economic distress he is causing Americans in the near future, identify a country to negotiate with, proclaim victory, and subsequently reduce tariffs on that nation or its products.
It is conceivable that the political leader of Lesotho, whoever that may be, could reach out to Trump to explain: “You’re right that Lesotho has a trade surplus with the United States. However, that’s primarily because we are a very impoverished nation and cannot afford to purchase your goods, while your wealth enables you to buy a significant number of the diamonds we mine. It is improbable that the 50% tariff you have imposed on Lesotho will lead us to increase our purchases from you, although it will undoubtedly raise the price of diamonds in the United States. Could you consider making an exception to your tariff policy for Lesotho?”
Perhaps Trump would consent.
Or, perhaps the leader of Lesotho might add, “This situation illustrates why imposing tariffs requires a nuanced understanding of each country’s unique circumstances and products, rather than applying a one-size-fits-all approach. This approach is counterproductive.”
However, Trump might respond in anger and decide to double the tariff on Lesotho, merely to assert his dominance.
While I await future developments to determine precisely when Trump will begin to declare victory and reduce tariffs, one thing is certain: It will occur before December 31. You heard it here first.
Mark Herrmann has an extensive background, having spent 17 years as a partner at a prominent international law firm, later overseeing litigation, compliance, and employment matters at a major international corporation. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and <em>Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy</em> (affiliate links). You can reach him via email at inhouse@abovethelaw.com.
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