SpaceX IPO: Should You Consider Investing?

In this insightful podcast episode, Motley Fool analysts Rick Munarriz, Karl Thiel, and Tim Beyers delve into:

• The implications of the anticipated SpaceX IPO.
• A discussion on the company’s identity as a Rule Breaker.
• Their personal insights on whether they would invest in the SpaceX IPO.

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A complete transcript of the podcast is provided below.

This podcast was recorded on December 15, 2025.

Tim Beyers: Are you considering investing in the SpaceX IPO? You’re tuning into Motley Fool Money. I’m your host, Tim Byers, joined by my long-time colleagues Rick Pinares and Karl Teal. We’ve been discussing Rule Breakers for quite some time now, and it feels like we’re approaching retirement age in that realm. It’s amusing to think about. Given the current trends, we need to dive deep into the potential impacts of SpaceX’s IPO. Bloomberg has highlighted that the company could launch its public offering with a remarkable $1.5 trillion valuation. Let’s unpack this news further and address the mindset questions you’ve submitted. To kick things off, I’d like to ask each of you: What are your thoughts on SpaceX? Karl, let’s start with you. What do you think about this company?

Karl Thiel: SpaceX is undoubtedly linked to Elon Musk, who garners significant media attention with each rocket launch. The successes and failures of these launches consistently capture public interest. However, it’s lesser-known that approximately 70% of SpaceX’s revenue is generated through Starlink, a satellite network that provides internet connectivity even in areas lacking traditional infrastructure. This service is a game-changer for millions who need reliable internet access.

Tim Beyers: Absolutely, that’s the essence of satellite internet. Rick, what’s a standout memory you have regarding SpaceX?

Rick Munarriz: When most think of SpaceX, their minds jump to the iconic rockets and spacecraft that frequently dominate the news. Yet, we cannot overlook Starlink, which has grown to over eight million subscribers in a remarkably short time, up from just one million a few years prior. This rapid expansion signals the rise of a global telecom powerhouse, making it a crucial aspect of SpaceX’s narrative. While the company is involved in taking payloads to space, I remain skeptical about ventures like launching AI data centers into orbit or colonizing Mars. Let’s face it, there’s no beachfront property on Mars, Tim! My travel agent certainly did not prepare me for that. Overall, SpaceX is a multifaceted entity with diverse opportunities, far beyond merely launching rockets.

Tim Beyers: Let’s explore the broader context of this. In terms of public market comparisons, I believe Rocket Lab is a close analogy. Currently, Rocket Lab (Ticker: RKLB) holds a market cap of around $30.3 billion. If Bloomberg’s predictions are accurate, SpaceX could achieve a market cap of $1.5 trillion, a colossal figure that would surpass all previous IPOs, potentially raising over $30 billion. SpaceX operates in three main segments, and while rocket launches for NASA are notable, I find the spaceship aspect particularly captivating. The concept of a reusable rocket is revolutionary—no one has successfully achieved this in rocket science until now. SpaceX is pioneering this approach, and it appears they believe they can significantly reduce launch costs. Currently, the cost is about $1,500 per kilogram for payloads, but with a reusable rocket, they anticipate dropping that to under $100 per kilogram. That’s a remarkable shift in economic dynamics. Given these insights, Rick, do you view SpaceX as a rule breaker?

Rick Munarriz: If they can deliver on those promises, definitely. The Starship, formerly known as Jefferson Airplane, could transform launch economics. The reusability factor changes the entire industry landscape. However, it’s one thing to express intentions and another to execute them. The competition is minimal, but I remain cautious about the timeline. How swiftly will competitors catch up? This development is intriguing, yet it raises questions about feasibility and execution.

Tim Beyers: Karl, I want to share some numbers for context before posing the same question to you. According to estimates from Gemini, SpaceX reported revenues of $1.4 billion in 2020 with net losses, and its private market valuation was around $44 billion. Fast forward five years, and we see projections of $15.5 billion in revenue for this year, with a staggering private market valuation of $800 billion. They plan to launch their IPO at about twice that valuation, so my question is: Does this indicate that SpaceX is a rule breaker?

Karl Thiel: SpaceX is indeed synonymous with innovation and rule-breaking. The introduction of a reusable rocket has disrupted the entire space launch industry. We are unlikely to revert to a fully government-funded space program anytime soon. In that light, SpaceX certainly qualifies as a rule breaker. However, I am cautious about the IPO. A valuation of $1.5 trillion would imply a price-to-sales ratio of 100 based on $15 billion in revenue. Nothing about the company, as it stands today, justifies such a valuation. To support this, we would need to see significant acceleration in various trends, which introduces heightened risks. The success of the Starship, which is designed to be fully reusable and capable of carrying larger payloads than the Falcon 9, is critical. If SpaceX can achieve this, it could indeed be a game changer.

Tim Beyers: I’d like your thoughts on this, Rick. Karl mentioned a 100x sales figure based on current projections for 2026, which would place SpaceX’s revenue at around $22-23 billion, resulting in a price-to-sales ratio of about 65. Given these insights, would you invest in the SpaceX IPO?

Rick Munarriz: This valuation seems primarily attributed to Starlink. Paying a premium of 65 times for a global telecom operation is a risky proposition. There are many unknown variables at play here, and the narrative surrounding SpaceX is likely to evolve over time. We’ve seen similar trends with Tesla, where the stock has nearly doubled since April. Timing is critical; the initial buzz around the IPO may lead to a spike in stock prices, but chasing that surge is not a strategy I favor.

Karl Thiel: I concur with that sentiment. Ultimately, the question of whether to buy the IPO may be moot for most investors. In all likelihood, you won’t be able to purchase at the IPO price. Instead, you might acquire shares post-IPO. For many, it may be wiser to observe the market dynamics before making a move. While the stock could soar initially, waiting for a better entry point might yield more favorable results.

Rick Munarriz: For those looking to invest, consider the history of Alphabet investing in SpaceX. Ten years ago, Google invested $900 million for a 7% stake in SpaceX. If the company reaches a $1.5 trillion valuation, that stake could translate to over $110 billion, which is a significant return. While this wouldn’t drastically impact Alphabet, it presents a safer avenue for exposure to SpaceX. Rick, your predictions for the next Alphabet earnings report will likely reflect this impressive growth. Now, we want to hear from you. What do you think? Are you planning to invest in the SpaceX IPO? Up next, we will tackle some mindset questions. You are listening to Motley Fool Money.

Tim Beyers: Welcome back, Fools! This is Tim Byers with Karl Teal and Rick Pinares. Now, let’s pivot to our Mindset segment. Thank you to everyone who submitted questions aimed at honing your investment discipline and ensuring you can confidently navigate the markets for the long term. Our first question comes from Mark Degner. Mark asks, Rick, what are the potential downsides of investing small amounts into FOMO stocks, especially if one can afford to absorb the losses? Can you clarify the difference between investing driven by FOMO—the fear of missing out—and investing based on solid prospects for growth?

Rick Munarriz: At Rule Breakers, we often take bold risks. While FOMO may seem like a negative concept, it can have a positive side. FOMO arises when investors feel pressured to buy because they see others profiting. However, it’s crucial to differentiate between genuine excitement for a promising investment and merely chasing trends. FOMO without thorough research—what I call FOHO (fear of homework omission)—is a dangerous game. If you’re drawn to a stock because you believe in its potential and have done your due diligence, then it can be a valuable addition to your portfolio. Just ensure you balance high-risk investments with more stable options.

Tim Beyers: I appreciate that perspective. FOMO without FOHO can lead to poor decisions. Karl, what advice would you give to Mark?

Karl Thiel: I echo Rick’s sentiments. Describing a stock as a FOMO investment implies that you may be buying solely out of fear rather than informed decision-making. It’s essential to have a clear rationale when investing. If you have a solid investment thesis and are following it, there’s nothing wrong with pursuing stocks that are gaining momentum.

Tim Beyers: Mark, the key takeaway is to approach any investment with a clear understanding of what you expect to see from it. If you enter a position without a strategy or knowledge about the stock’s potential, you may find yourself in a difficult spot. Instead, if you maintain a curious mindset and monitor your investments closely, you might discover rewarding opportunities. Please continue to send your Mindset questions. You can reach me at [email protected], and your question could feature in a future episode. Next, let’s preview Tuesday’s show with Emily Flipping. You are listening to Motley Fool Money.

Welcome back, Fools! Join us on Tuesday as Emily Flipping hosts Jason Hall and Sami Deo. We will discuss not only the latest earnings season but also reflect on how 2025 has impacted your portfolio. Let’s go around the table and share our experiences. Personally, I feel like I performed well. Rick, how has 2025 treated your portfolio?

Rick Munarriz: Surprisingly well, considering my cautious outlook back in April. I’m delighted with how my portfolio has fared this year, especially as I was bracing for a downturn. It has been a pleasant surprise.

Tim Beyers: That’s great to hear! Karl, how about your experience?

Karl Thiel: Overall, it’s been a fruitful year. While I focus on many biotech stocks, it’s not the dominant part of my portfolio. However, I do own several, and this year has been particularly favorable for the biotech sector, which has positively influenced my investments.

Tim Beyers: I appreciate your approach, by the way. Buying small positions and gradually building them aligns with a wise investment strategy. I tend to do the same, focusing on tech stocks without heavily overcommitting to speculative investments. Thank you all for tuning into Motley Fool Money. We hope you are preparing for a fantastic holiday season.

As always, the individuals featured on this program may hold interests in the stocks discussed. Motley Fool might have formal recommendations regarding these stocks. Please avoid making investment decisions based solely on this podcast. All personal finance content adheres to Motley Fool’s editorial standards and has not been endorsed by advertisers. Advertisements featured are sponsored content intended for informational purposes. For our complete advertising disclosure, please refer to our show notes. As we approach the year’s end, we appreciate your continued support. Our engineer today was Annie Pope, and our producer was Anan Chuck Balu. A special thanks to our guests, Karl Teal and Rick Pinares. I am your host, Tim Byers. Stay tuned for Emily Flipping, Jason Hall, and Sami Deo tomorrow. Fool on, everyone. See you soon.