{"id":11738,"date":"2025-12-26T06:04:47","date_gmt":"2025-12-26T05:04:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/oxfordwisefinance.com\/blog\/?p=11738"},"modified":"2025-12-26T06:05:05","modified_gmt":"2025-12-26T05:05:05","slug":"rigetti-computing-stock-expected-to-plunge-by-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/oxfordwisefinance.com\/blog\/rigetti-computing-stock-expected-to-plunge-by-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Rigetti Computing Stock Expected to Plunge by 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<\/p>\n

In 2025, stocks related to quantum computing<\/b> experienced remarkable growth, yet many of these investments still lack solid fundamentals that investors typically look for.<\/p>\n

\n

Quantum computers<\/a><\/b> leverage a principle known as superposition<\/b>, enabling them to explore numerous potential solutions to a specific problem simultaneously. This characteristic theoretically allows quantum systems to accelerate complex workloads, paving the way for groundbreaking advancements in fields such as science<\/b> and cryptography<\/a><\/b>. This potential has attracted significant investor interest in quantum stocks like Rigetti Computing<\/strong> (RGTI 2.39%<\/span>)<\/span> throughout 2025.<\/p>\n

Nevertheless, the majority of quantum computers currently accessible still exhibit alarmingly high error rates, rendering them ineffective for real-world applications. Consequently, companies like Rigetti find themselves struggling to achieve large-scale commercialization of their quantum platforms.<\/p>\n

Over the past year, the value of Rigetti’s stock has more than doubled, with its market capitalization reaching approximately $8.5 billion as of this writing. However, due to its minimal revenue generation, the company may encounter challenges in sustaining this valuation throughout 2026. This leads me to predict a significant decline in its stock value as we transition into the new year. Continue reading to find out more.<\/p>\n

\"An<\/div>\n

Image source: Getty Images.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Discover Rigetti’s Pioneering Role in Quantum Computing<\/h2>\n

Rigetti Computing<\/strong>, established in 2013, has made significant strides over its relatively short history, creating a comprehensive in-house supply chain that distinguishes it from other players in the quantum computing<\/b> industry. The company operates its own fabrication facility for manufacturing quantum chips<\/a><\/b>, developed a unique programming language named Quil<\/a><\/b>, and has launched a cloud computing platform that enables businesses to rent quantum computing capacity on-demand.<\/p>\n

This vertical integration allows Rigetti to introduce updates to the market more swiftly than competitors. Currently, the company boasts the largest multichip quantum computer in its class, known as Cepheus-1-36Q<\/b>, which has achieved an impressive fidelity rating of 99.5%. Fidelity is a critical metric that quantifies the accuracy of quantum operations; a higher fidelity indicates fewer errors, thus enhancing the computer’s practical utility in addressing real-world challenges.<\/p>\n

Unlike conventional computers that rely on bits<\/a><\/b>, which can only represent a state of 0 or 1, quantum computers utilize qubits<\/b>. These qubits can exist in a state of superposition<\/b>, allowing them to represent both 0 and 1 simultaneously. This capacity enables quantum systems to perform far more computations in a significantly shorter timeframe, potentially revolutionizing data-intensive disciplines such as science<\/b> in the years to come.<\/p>\n

The Cepheus-1-36Q system incorporates four chips, each containing 9 qubits for a total of 36 qubits. Rigetti, however, is not resting on its laurels; the company plans to unveil a new system boasting over 1,000 qubits by 2027, which could achieve a remarkable fidelity of 99.8%. In essence, Rigetti is rapidly advancing towards the development of commercial-grade quantum computers that could be instrumental for businesses across various sectors.<\/p>\n

Assessing Rigetti’s Financial Health: Revenue and Losses<\/h2>\n

In the first three quarters of 2025 (from January 1 to September 30), Rigetti reported a mere $5.2 million in revenue. Given its market capitalization of $8.5 billion, this figure is exceptionally low. To complicate matters, revenue has declined by 39% compared to the same period in 2024.<\/p>\n

On a more positive note, in September, Rigetti secured purchase orders for two quantum computing systems, which are expected to generate approximately $5.7 million in revenue during the first half of 2026. This development provides the company with an opportunity to achieve revenue growth for the full year.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, Rigetti faces a significant hurdle regarding its bottom line. The company continues to increase its operating expenses despite declining revenues, resulting in a net loss of $198 million based on generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) for the first three quarters of 2025.<\/p>\n

Even after excluding one-time and non-cash expenses, Rigetti still reported a loss of $39 million during this period. As of November 6, the company holds around $600 million in cash, equivalents, and short-term investments on its balance sheet, providing sufficient liquidity to support its ongoing losses for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

However, if Rigetti fails to commercialize its quantum systems at scale within the next few years, the company may be compelled to seek additional funding, leading to potential dilution for current shareholders.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\"Rigetti<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Today’s Change<\/p>\n

(-2.39%) $-0.60<\/p>\n

Current Price<\/p>\n

$24.51<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

Essential Data Points for Rigetti<\/h3>\n
\n

Market Cap<\/p>\n

$8.1B<\/p>\n

Day’s Range<\/p>\n

$24.04 – $25.22<\/p>\n

52wk Range<\/p>\n

$5.95 – $58.15<\/p>\n

Volume<\/p>\n

18M<\/p>\n

Avg Vol<\/p>\n

74M<\/p>\n

Gross Margin<\/p>\n

-6849.48%<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

Understanding Rigetti’s Unsustainable Stock Valuation<\/h2>\n

The primary reason for my belief that Rigetti’s stock will face a dramatic decline in 2026 is its valuation. At present, the company is trading at an astonishing price-to-sales (P\/S) ratio of 1,010, a figure that is simply not viable in the long term.<\/p>\n

Nvidia<\/strong>, recognized as one of the most reputable companies in computing hardware, maintains a P\/S ratio of only 24. In comparison, Rigetti’s valuation makes Palantir Technologies<\/a><\/strong>‘ P\/S ratio of 127 seem relatively reasonable, despite its own absurdity.<\/p>\n

\"RGTI<\/p>\n

RGTI PS Ratio data by YCharts<\/p>\n

While Rigetti’s technology is undoubtedly captivating, it is crucial for investors to manage risk effectively. Paying such a high premium for a company with negligible revenue and substantial losses often leads to negative outcomes. Indeed, Rigetti’s stock has already decreased by 53% since its peak in October.<\/p>\n

Given that the stock would need to plummet by an additional 87% just to align with Palantir’s P\/S ratio, I foresee further declines on the horizon for 2026.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n

Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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